KINH TE VI MO Lgm phdt, thdt nghiep vd tang trudng kinh te VO HUNG DUNG J gm phdt, thdt nghiep vd tdng trudng kinh teed md'i quan he chat che vdi nhau

KINH TE VI MO Lgm phdt, thdt nghiep vd tang trudng kinh te VO HUNG DUNG J gm phdt, thdt nghiep vd tdng trudng kinh teed md'i quan he chat che vdi nhau. Thdi gian qua, trong thuc thi chinh sdch, dudng nhu cdc cd quan qudn ly thien vi chu y tdi td'c do tdng trudng. Bdi viet phdn tich xu hudng, tinh chd't, cdc nguyen nhdn ddn de'n lgm phdt, cdc yiu to'ddn de'n thdt nghiep. Lqm phdt vd thdt nghiep Id 2 yeu td cd tdc dgng ldn de'n tdc do tdng trudng, nhung dephdt trien kinh tebin vttng thi cdn cd cdc gidi phdp dung nhdm hqn che tdc hgi cua lqm phdt, thdt nghiep. I. LAM PHAT VA THAT NGHIEP Lam phat vi thi't nghiep li 2 vi'n de gan lien vdi ehu ky kinh doanh. Ting trfldng se thu hut nhieu cdng in viec lim, ty le thi't nghiep giam; ting trfldng ndng ed the din de'n lam phit cao. Ngflde lai trong thdi ky suy thdii, thi't nghiep gia ting, hing hda e' am chi sd' gia thfldng thi'p hoic giam. Nhflng thing trim cua sin Iflpng, lam phit, lai sui't vi thit nghiep hinh thinh nen chu ky kinh doanh, la dac diem chung ciia ti't ea cie nen kinh te thi trfldng. (Samuelson, 1995). 1. Lam phat Lgm phdt Id mac chung cua gid cd vd chi phi tdng Samuelson vi Begg cho ring lgm phdt xiy ra khi mfle chung cua gii ea vi chi phi tang. Giam phat xay ra khi mfle gii chung giim xud'ng (ty le lam phit im) vi dfldc dd bing chi sd' gii, tflc li trung binh eiia gii tieu dung hoac gii sin xuit. (Samuelson, 1985, 1995). Lam phit ndi chung li cd hai cho nen kinh te, nhflng cdn tfly thude tinh chit vi mfle dp ciia cac eupc lam phit. Cie nhi kinh te phin chia xu hfldng ciia lam phat thinh lam phit vfla phai, lam phit phi ma, sieu lam phit; cflng nhfl tinh chit eiia lam phit: lam phit dfl doin dfldc vi lam phat khdng dfl doin dflde. Lgm phdt vda phdi li Ipai lam phit khi gii ca tang chim vi ed the dfl ddin trfldc dfldc, ty le hang nim d mdt ehfl sd' (chfla de'n 10% nam). Vdi gia ca dn dinh, mpi ngfldi tin tfldng vid dong tien, hp sin sing gifl tien. Vdi loai lam phit niy, nhieu nhi kinh te cho rang vd hai. Lgm phdt phi md khi gii ca ting vdi ty le 2 hoic 3 eon sd' nhfl 20, 100, 200% mdt nim. Mdt khi lam phit phi mi trd nen vflng chic, nhflng bie'n dang nghiem trpng ve kinh te nay sinh. Lam phat phi ma la ri't ngai. Tuy viy, vin ed mdt so' nen kinh te (Braxin, Israel)^ vdi ty le lam phit hing nim 200% vin cd phat trien (Samuelson, 1995). Lam phit cua Viet Nam trong cic nam 1986-1990 li lam phit phi ma khi ty le ting Vo Hung Dung, TS., VCCI Can Tho. 1. Lam phat cao va tang tnrdng d Israel trong cac nam 1973-1985 la dl tai gay chu y ciia nhiiu nha kinh te'. Bat ddu tir cii sd'c eung cud'i nam 1973 khi OPEC tang gia din duoc cho la de iing ho eac nude Arap trong cuoc chie'n tranh vdi Israel (cuoc chie'n Yom Kippur tir 06-26/10/1973). Chinh phii Israel da phai in tien dl bu dap tham hut. Mtirc tham hut ngan sach hang nam vao khoang 17% tir 1973-1984. Lam phat tich luy keo dai trong 12 nam (tir 1973-1984), nam 1984 len de'n 445% nam. Tang trudng kinh te chi edn 1,2% trong thdi gian ndi tren (tir 1961-1972 tang trudng binh quan 5.7% nam). Khiing hoang xay ra, cudi ciing eung phai thay ddi vao nam 1985. Ke hoach chd'ng lam phat duoc trao cho nha kinh te Michael Bruno (giii' ehii'e Thdng dd'c Ngan hang Trung uong vao thang 6/1986) va dupe thue hien tir giira thang 7 nam 1985. Bruno da thuyei phuc cae cdng doan duy tri mii'c luong eu; cd dinh miic gia va ty gia hd'i doai; thda thuan eat giam tham hut ngan sach cua Chinh phii. Tham hut ngan sach giam tir 17% nam trudc dd cdn 1% U-ong khoang thdi gian 1985-1990, lam phat giam tir 445% nam 1984 edn 185% nam 1985 va 20% nam 1986. Tang trudng binh quan dau ngudi tang trung binh 3,4% trong 3 nam dau khi lam phat giam. (William Easteriy, Truy tim can nguyen tang trudng, Nxb Lao dpng - Xa hdi, 2009). 14

Lam phdt, that nghiep... den 3 ehfl sd' trong 3 nim 1986, 1987 vi 1988. Cic nim sau dd giam edn 2 ehfl sd'vi keo dii cho de'n 1991. Chinh trong thdi ky niy thi Viet Nam di ed nhflng cai cich manh me nhi't. Mfldi siu nim sau, nim 2007 Viet Nam lai rdi vio lam phit vdi chi sdgii ting 12,6% vi nim 2008 ting 19,9%. Sieu lgm phdt: li tinh trang gii ca ting cflc nhanh do dong tien mi't gii, trung binh len de'n 50% thing. Vdi loai lam phit niy thi nen kinh te bi bie'n dang nghiem trpng, khdng ed bit efl diem gi li td't. Dien hinh cho sieu lam phit dflde md ta nhfl trfldng hdp d Dflc tfl thing 1-1922 de'n thing 11-1923, chi sd' gii ting len tfl 1 de'n 10.000.000. Vie thing 10 nim 1923 ngfldi ta phai bd ra 192 trieu Reichsmarks de mua mdt chai nfldc cd gii 1 Reichsmarks vio thing 1 nim 1922. Sieu lam phit chi xiy ra trong thdi ky chie'n tranh heac cich mang. Trong dieu kien binh thfldng tien Ifldng thfle te ciia mdt ngfldi chi xe dich khoing khdng qui 1% mdt thing. Trong nim 1923, tien Ifldng thflc te ciia Dfle thay dd'i len xud'ng trung binh 1/3 mdi thing di gay ra ganh nang ri't ldn che cdng nhan vi deanh nghiep. (Samuelsonl985, 1995). Zimbabwe hien li qud'c gia cd tinh trang sieu lam phit tdi te nhi't trong lich sii the gidi, vdi ty le vfldt mfle 40 trieu %. Ty le lam phit ting tfl 1.000% vio nam 2006 len de'n 12.000% vio nim 2007. Chinh phu phii bd di 10 ehfl sd 0 tren td tien Zimbabwe vio thing 8/2008 de dim bao may tinh cd the tinb dfldc. Ne'u khdng, 1 USD cd the tudng dfldng vdi 10.000 ty USD Zimbabwe. (VOV news 18-10-2008) Lgm phdt du dodn dudc li Ipai lam phit d'n dinh vi biet trfldc. Ching ban ti't ca mfle gii ting 5% mdt nim vi mpi ngfldi dfl kien ring xu hfldng niy se tiep tuc. Vdi leai lam phat vfla phii vi dfl ddin dfldc thi khdng cd vi'n de gi vdi nen kinh te, thim cbi nd cdn dfldc xem li cd ich vdi tic ddng thuc day diu tfl, md rdng sin xui't vi xuit khau. Nhflng tren thfle te thi lam phat li ri't khd doin trfldc dflde, do viy lam phit vin gay ra nhflng td'n hai nhi't dinh ddi vdi ddi vdi ngfldi gifl tien, doanh nghiep va nen kinh te - thdng qua sfl phan phdi thu nhip, cua cii. Lgm phdt khdng dit dodn trudc dudc li Ipai lam phit cd tic hai hdn sd vdi lam phit d'n dinh, dfldc dfl kien trfldc. Nd gay sfl bie'n dang nen kinh te vi phan phdi lai cua cai mdt cich ddc doin. Mdt sfl ting vpt ciia gii khdng Ifldng trfldc se lim cho nhieu ngfldi ngheo di, ehi mdt sd' it giiu len, tinh trang diu cd, true ldi gia ting. Nguyen nhdn lgm phdt Samuelson (1995) cho ring khdng mdt nguyen nhin ddn le nio gay ra lam phit, mdt sd' xui't phit tfl phia ciu, sd' khie xui't phit tfl phia cung. Nhflng dieu quan trpng vdi lam phit (trong nen kinh te hien dai) khi tao dfldc ddng lfle ben treng thi ri't khd dflng lai mdt khi di bit diu. Lgm phdt do cdu keo xay ra khi cd qui nhieu chi tieu de mua qua it hing hda. Lam phit do ciu keo dien ra khi tdng cau ting nhanh hdn tiem ning sin xui't, keo gii ting len de lim ein bing td'ng cung td'ng ciu. Ly thuye't trpng tien cho ring cung tien li nhan td' quye't dinh chinh ciia lam phit. Cung tien lim ting td'ng ciu, de'n Ifldt minh td'ng ciu lai lim ting mfle gii. (Samuelson, 1985, 1995) De chd'ng lam phat do eau keo, bien phip ddn gian nhi't li ting lii sui't, thit chit cung tien. Chd'ng lam phit do ciu keo ddn gian hdn so vdi lam phit do chi phi day. Lgm phdt do chi phi ddy xui't hien do chi phi sin xui't ting, mac dfl khdng cd nhu ciu qua nhieu ddi vdi hing hda hoic dau vio (Samuelson, 1985). Lam phit do chi phi day cd the do tien Ifldng ting nhanh, ngay ca trong thdi ky lam phit, thi't nghiep cao tien Ifldng (danh nghia) bi diy len qui nhanh eung ed the gay nen tinh trang niy. Nguyen nhan khac li dd eu sd'c cung khdng thuin ldi, vi du gii dau ting ri't nhanh, lim gia ting chi phi vi day mfle gii chung ting len. Nghiin ciru Kinh li si 378 - Thing 11/2009 15

Lam phdt, that nghiep Lam phit do chi phi day nhin chung li khd chd'ng hdn sd vdi ciu keo, die biet khi tien Ifldng trdng nfldc ting lai xuit hien cu sd'c cung bit ldi diy chi phi len cao. Lqm phdt do cd cdu Lam phat do sfl thien lech trong cd ci'u kinh te hoic do bdp meo gii ca. De thiy nhi't li khi nen kinh te phu thudc ldn vio ndng nghiep. Mdi khi cd thien tai, mi't mua, dich benh gay hai nguon thfle pham chinh deu gay anh hfldng trflc tie'p manh me de'n ting gia - bat dau tfl Ifldng thflc, thfle pham sau dd la phan flng day chuyen de'n nhieu Ipai hing hda khac. Tinh trang lam phit cua Viet Nam trong cic nim tfl 1979 de'n 1986 vi de'n 1990, deu ed nguyen nhan tfl Ifldng thfle, do cd ci'u kinh te luc i'y phu thudc ldn vio ndng nghiep vi sin xuit lua gao. Jevon ngfldi da dinh nhieu thdi gian nghien cflu ve sfl bie'n ddng thdi vu cho ring chinh, bie'n ddng trong thu hpach mfla ming li nguyen nhan gay nen ehu ky ehfl khdng phai li do cdng nghiep. Lam phit do ed ci'u edn do nguyen nhan khd thi'y hdn, la sfl thien lech trong chinh sach. Viee khuye'n khich mdt nginh nay bing cich tap trung cac ngudn Iflc cd the lim nhieu nginh khie khdng cd dieu kien de phit trie'n. Gii ca cua hing hda dfldc khuye'n khich cd the re tfldng ddi, nhflng nhieu Ipai hing hda cin thie't khic khic lai qui dit lim ehe cd ciu gii ca bi bdp meo. Chinh sich bao hd hing trong nfldc khdng chi lim cho hing hda dfldc bid hd cd mfle gia cao gay meo md ed ci'u gii, ma cdn tao ra kenh phan phdi ddc quyen. Vdi cac chiing Ipai hing hda tieu dung thie't ye'u, thi he thd'ng phin phdi niy se thfldng xuyen lim "gii" vdi bit ky ly do nio - tfl chinh sach trong nfldc, tfl ty gii hay viee nhip khau trd nen khd khin. Lam phit do cd ci'u kinh te lac hiu se thay dd'i khi ed ci'u kinh te thay dd'i. Nhflng lam phit de sfl thien lech trong chinh sich thi sfl thay dd'i phfle tap hdn nhieu. HINH 1: Lam phat va cung tien tii 1987-2000 450 1 Lgm phat va cung tien tii- 1987-2000 Ling% ang chi so gia tieu d <(i> 400 ' 350 300 250-200 - 150-100 50 n -50 5 y = 0.83X- 19.20 R^ = 0.92 ^^^^^ * *,^ Tl le tang cung tien % ^ 1 inn?nn.-^nn ^ 400 5( )n Ngudn: Tinh toan ciia tac gia tir nguon IMF va Tong cue Thd'ng ke. Trong md hinh tren, lam phit vi cung tien ed y nghia chu ye'u li tfl nim 1987 de'n nim 1996 vi md rdng de'n nim 20(X). Nd khdng them y nghia khi nhan gia tri tfl nim 2001 trd di. Hinh ben dfldi li do thi rai chi sd' gii tieu dflng CPI vi ting td'ng phfldng tien thanh toin (M2) tfl 1992-2000, cho thi'y mfle dp phan tin khi cao. Khi kiem dinh md binh cung khdng tdn tai mdi quan he cd y nghia thd'ng ke. 16 Nghiin cdu Kinh tisi378 - Thing 11/2009

Lam phdt, thdt nghiep HINH 2: Do thi rai lam phat va cung tien tii 1992-2006 diing 3 o w 'is 20-18 - 18-14 - 12-10 1 8 ^ 6-4 2 - Uim phdt vd cung ti6n to 1992-2006 0 * 0 i, ^,,.2 i> 10 20 30 40 50 60 TT 1$ cung ti6n M2 Mdt so' nghien cflu cua cac tic gia khic cung cho thi'y khdng cd mdi quan he re ret gifla cung tien vi chi sd' gii trong cic nim tfl sau 1990 de'n 2005. Khdng rd dieu niy di anh hfldng the nio trdng dieu hinh chinh sich tien te tfl sau 2005. Lieu da cd sfl ehu quan nie dd trdng viec ting cung tien ri't manh trong nim 2007? Rd ring li lam phit xiy ra khdng chi do cung tien mi bdi nhieu nhan td' tic ddng cflng lfle. Nhflng tien te li ye'u nhay cim nhi't vdi ting gii. Trong giai dpan binh thfldng vi khi tien te dfldc kiem soit td't thi quan he gifla eung tien vi ting gia li ri't khd quan sit, nhflng khi Ifldng tien ting len dot ngdt, cac quan he phit sinh trflc tie'p vi giin tie'p se lim mfle gia gia ting dot ngdt, nhanh chdng lim dio ldn nhieu mdi quan he vi hiu qui thfldng li ri't ldn. 2. That nghiep Tinh trqng ngudi lao dgng khdng cd viec Idm vd dang tim kie'm viec lam Thdt nghiep li tinh trang ngfldi lad ddng khdng cd viec lim nhflng dang tich cflc tim viec hdic dang chd dfldc trd lai lim viec. Samuelsen (1985) cho ring mdt ngfldi thi't nghiep li ngfldi khdng cd viec lim vi: (i) cd nhflng cd' ging cu the tim viee (d My li trong 4 tuan), (ii) bi cho thdi viec vi dang chd dfldc gpi lai, hoic (iii) dang dpi de di lim treng thing tdil Ty le thdt nghiep li so ngfldi thi't nghiep chia cho lfle Ifldng lad ddng (bao gom nhflng ngfldi thi't nghiep vi nhflng ngfldi dang cd cdng an viec lim). Dinh nghia ve thi't nghiep d Viet Nam, cung nhfl d nhieu nfldc ve ein ban li gid'ng nhau Sd vdi dinh nghia trinh biy tren. Be Lad ddng- Thfldng binh vi xi hdi dfla ra dinh nghia, thee dd thi't nghiep bae gdm ti't ca nhflng ngfldi tfl dii 15 tud'i trd len treng tuin le trfldc dieu tra vi dam bid cic dieu kien: (i) khdng ed viec (khdng cd viec lim dflde tra cdng hoic khdng phii lim viec gia dinh khdng hfldng Ifldng), (ii) cd kha ning lim viec vi (iii) dang di tim viee^. 2. Dinh nghia Samuelson duoc hieu la vdi nude My nhung van mang tinh phd bie'n trong Iy thuyei kinh te' hoc. Samuelson eung timg phan nan rang chi'nh phii cung da nhieu khi tim each thay ddi eac dinh nghia giai thich tinh trang that nghiep. Thang 6-2009, nen kinh te' My da mat 467 nghin viee lam, nang tdng sd tha't nghiep chinh thu'c len 14,7 trieu ngudi tuong duong 9,5%. Dd la ehua tinh sd that nghiep "chua ehinh thiic". Ne'u tinh ca sd nay thi tha't nghiep len den 16,5%. That nghiep "khdng chi'nh thuc" d My (do Bd Lao ddng qui dinh) gdm 3 nhdm: (i) nhung ngudi bi ma't viee nhimg chan nan khdng di tim viec; (ii) nhung ngudi thai nghiep keo dai qua 6 thang (theo Chinh phii My, ngudi tha't nghiep sau 6 thang se dupc coi la da tim duac viee, cho dii van dang tha't nghiep); (iii) nhijng ngudi ed viee tam thdi, ban thdi gian, dang tim kie'm viec lam dn dinh. Tnrdc dd, ca 3 nhdm nay deu xep vao that nghiep. Nhung sau nay Chinh phii My dua ho vao nhdm ed viee lam nhung khdng dung nguyen vpng (the underemployment). Ty le that nghiep d My de'n thang 6/2009 se la 10% ne'u cong them nhdm 1, la 10,8% ne'u them nhdm 2 va 16,5% neu tinh cdng chung them ca 3 nhdm. (Bao Thanh Nien, ngay 11-7-2009: Ngay cang nhieu ngudi My tha't nghiep). 3. Bd 1^0 ddng - Thuong binh va xa hdi, Sd lieu viec lam va thai nghiep d Viet Nam giai doan 1996-2005. Nghiin ciru Kinh tisi378 - Thing 11/2009 17

Lam phdt, that nghiep That nghiep tu nguyen vd thdt nghiep khdng tu nguyen Thdt nghiep tit nguyen: li tinh trang cdng nhin mud'n lim viee nhflng ehi vdi mfle Ifldng' cao hdn mfle Ifldng hien hinh, hoic cdng viee mi hp fla thich hdn cdng viec hien tai. Thi't nghiep tfl nguyen khdng phii li dieu ding quan ngai. Cd ri't nhieu ly do khie'n ngfldi ta tfl nguyen ehpn khdng di lim vdi mfle Ifldng hien hinh tha'p, hp thich nghi ngdi, hoic do ning sui't thi'p cin thdi gian hpc nghe, ly dd ed hpc (Samuelson, 1995). Thdt nghiep khdng tu nguyen li nhflng ngfldi lad ddng cd du tieu chuin mud'n lim viec tai mfle Ifldng phd' bie'n nhflng khdng the tim dfldc viec lim. Day mdi li vi'n de ding quan ngai bdi tinh trang nen kinh te khdng the tae them dfldc cdng in viec lim mdi. Chinh phu cd khuynh hfldng mud'n bao ve quyen ldi ciia ngfldi lao ddng thfldng cd qui dinh tien Ifldng tdi thieu. Nhflng vdi dieu niy, cic nhi kinh te cho ring cd the lim gia ting sd' ngfldi that nghiep khdng tfl nguyen. Bio hiem that nghiep cao cung cd the lim gidi ehii ngin ngai tuyen them lao ddng cung cd the ed nhflng he qua tfldng tfl. Thdt nghiep cd hgc phit sinh do sfl di chuyen khdng ngflng cua nhflng con ngfldi gifla cac vflng, cic cdng viec hoic cic giai doan khic nhau eua cude sd'ng. Ngay trong nen kinh te toin dung lao ddng vin cd thi't nghiep loai niy nhfl sinh vien tim viec lim sau khi td't nghiep. Trong mdt sd' trfldng hdp thi't nghiep ed hpc do phai thay dd'i cdng viec, hoic tim viee lim khie td't hdn nen dfldc cdi li thi't nghiep tfl nguyen. Thdt nghiep chu ky phit sinh khi mfle ciu chung ve lad ddng thi'p. Khi chi tieu vi sin BANG 1: Lao dong dang 1996 1998 1999 2000 Sd lao ddng 33.761 35.233 35.976 37.610 (nghin ngudi) Ty le tang (%) 2,21 2,14 2,11 4,54 Ty le tha't 5,88 6,85 7,40 6,42 nghiep (%) Ifldng giam thi thi't nghiep ting len hiu nhfl d khip ndi. That nghiep ehu ky se giam khi nen kinh te hoi phuc trd lai. Sfl phan biet gifla that nghiep chu ky vi cie loai thit nghiep khic li vi'n de then chd't de phin doin ve tinh hinh chung cua thi trfldng lao dpng. (Samuelson, 1985) Thdt nghiep cd cdu xay ra khi ed sfl mi't can ddi gifla cung vi ciu ddi vdi cdng nhan. Sfl mi't can ddi niy ed the diin ra vi mfle ciu ddi vdi mdt Ipai lao ddng ting len trong khi mfle cau ddi vdi mdt loai lao ddng khac giim di, trong khi dd mfle eung khdng dfldc dieu chinh kip. Thi't nghiep cd ci'u xay ra ngay ca khi nen kinh te dang cd ty le ting trfldng cao, nhu ciu mdi vdi lao ddng gia ting. Die biet trong cac giai dpan dieu chinh hoac tii ci'u true nen kinh te. Trong trfldng hdp dd thit nghiep se rdi vid nhflng ngfldi ldn tud'i, nhflng ngfldi c6 trinh dp hpc vi'n thi'p, khdng ed khi nang chuyen nghe hoic tie'p can eic chfldng trinh dio tao lai. Thi't nghiep cd ca'u gia ting khi nen kinh te thay dd'i ed ci'u. Khi ty trpng eiia cic nginh ndng nghiep giam, thi khdng phai toin bd sd lao ddng d dd deu chuyen he't sang cie nginh khic, mi chi ed lfle Ifldng lad ddng li thanh nien, cd sfle khde, cd trinh dp chuyen di. Lfle Ifldng lad ddng edn lai trong ndng nghiep dai bd phin li nhflng ngfldi ldn tud'i, sfle khde kem, vi ndi chung li khdng the chuyen ddi dfldc. Thi't nghiep trong trfldng hdp niy rit khd giai quye't. Khi cd ci'u kinh te thay ddi nhanh, thit nghiep ed ci'u eung ting nhanh ddi hdi phai cd cic chfldng trinh trd giup cho khu vflc ndng thdn vi vdi mang Ifldi an sinh xi bdi phit trien. Thdt nghiep d Viet Nam lam viec va that nghiep 2001 2004 2005 2006 38.563 41.586 42.527 43.339 2,53 2,50 2,26 1,91 6,28 5,60 5,31 4,82 Ngudn: Tdng cue Thd'ng ke, Nien giam thd'ng ke. 2007 44.174 1,93 4,64 2008 44.916 1,68 4,65 18 Nghiin cdu Kinh tisi378 - Thing 11/2009

Lam phdt, that nghiep Bang 1: Ty le thi't nghiep d mfle cao nhi't vio nim 1999 li 7,4%, thi'p nhi't li nim 2007 vdi 4,64%. Sd' lao ddng dang lim viee (tinh vio thdi diem 1/7 hing nim) nim 2008 dat gin 45 trieu ngfldi ting 11,2 trieu ngfldi Sd vdi nim 1996. Ty le ting binh quan hing nim tfl nim 1996 de'n nim 2005 li 2,6%, tfl nim 2005 de'n nim 2008 li 1,8%. Nim 2000 se vdi 1999 cd sfl gia ting ddt ngdt len de'n 4,5% li dieu ri't khd hieu. Trong cie lin cdng bd' sd' lieu, Td'ng cue Thd'ng ke thfldng ed sfl dieu chinh hoic thay dd'i dot ngdt mi khdng neu ly do. Cie sd' lieu dieu tra tfl Bd Lao ddng - Thfldng binh vi xi hdi cho thi'y, thit nghiep d Viet Nam mang tinh ed ci'u khi rd. HINH 4: Ty le that nghiep theo liia tuoi nam 1996, 1999 va 2005 6 n.' '',-/' 5-4 - 3 - Nam 1996 Nam 1999 A Nam 2005 2-1 - ijlitl,. 0-15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 * 55-64 65 Ngudn: Bd Lao ddng - Thuong binh va xa hdi, Sd lieu thd'ng ke viec lam va that nghiep d Viet Nam giai doan 1996-2005. Ty le thi't nghiep d Idp tud'i thanh nien tfl 15 de'n 30 di ting len d nim 2005 so vdi nim 1996. Trong nim 1999, nim suy thoii, thi't nghiep d Idp tud'i thanh nien vi ngfldi ldn deu ting se nim 1996. De'n nim 2005 chi cdn d Idp tud'i thanh nien ty le thi't nghiep cae hdn (19,4% sd vdi 10,5% ciia nim 1996). Thi't nghiep d nhdm tud'i tren 60 trong nim 1999 cao hdn nim 1996, cd the nhflng ngfldi niy di khdng the tim dflde viee lim mdi bdi tudi tie vi nghe nghiep khdng thich flng. HINH 5: Ty le tham gia li^c Ividng lao dong theo Iflfa tuoi 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Nam 1996.1 a " " "^ "" fl. 30 Nam 2005 20 10 0.Nam 1996.Nam 2005 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40^4 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 Nghiin ciru Kinh tisi378 - Thing 11/2009 19

Lam phdt, that nghiep... Hinh 5: cho thi'y sfl thay dd'i cd ci'u nhdm tud'i trong lfle Ifldng lao ddng. 0 nhdm tud'i thanh nien tfl 15-25 tud'i ty le tham gia Iflc Ifldng lao ddng nim 2005 giam dang ke so nam 1996. Dieu nay dfldc giii thich bdi hiu bet treng nhdm tud'i niy dang cdn di hpc, hpc nghe vi mdt sd' cd the tim viee, cung cd the trong sd' dd chfla sin sing cho viec di lim. Vi dieu nay giai thich vi sao ty le thi't nghiep d Idp tuoi niy eao trong nhflng nim gin diy. Ty le ngfldi tren 55 tud'i tham gia Ifldng lao ddng cung giim, dflde giai thich bdi ehe dp nghi hflu theo tud'i dfldc ap dung phd bie'n hdn trong nen kinh te. Viec ty le ngfldi dii tud'i tham gia vio lfle Ifldng lao ddng giam so vdi nam 1976 lim giam ty le lao ddng so vdi dan so', phan bd' lai bfle tranh lao ddng, nhu ciu hpc tap, nghi ngdi ciia cie nim sau 2000 so vdi thap nien 90. Sfl thay dd'i cd ciu kinh te, lao ddng trong ndng nghiep giam hdn cac nam trfldc cung lam giam ty le tham gia lfldng lao ddng d Idp tudi thanh nien vi tang ty le thit nghiep d nhdm tud'i niy. Thit nghiep tfl nguyen khi ldn va that nghiep cd ci'u khi cad trdng thdi ky suy thoii. Cac sd' lieu ve lao ddng viec lim cung ei'p trong khoang thdi gian tfl 1996-2005 chd thi'y: - So' lao ddng cd viec lim nam gidi ting (tfl 49% nim 1996 len 51% nim 2005) trong khi nfl gidi lai giam. Trong ed ci'u lao ddng cd viec lim thi d thinh thi ting (tfl 19,2% nam 1996 len 24,4% nam 2005) trong khi cd ci'u lao ddng cd viec lim d ndng thdn giam tfl 80,8% cdn 75,6% nim 2005. Dieu dd him y rang khu vflc thinh thi cd kha ning giai quye't dfldc nhieu viec lim hdn. Sfl ehim tri ciia dd thi hda lim thi't nghiep tiem an d Viet Nam ra't ldn. - Sd' lao ddng cd viec lim da giam d trinh dp hoc vi'n thi'p (trfldc tieu hpc vi khdng di hpc), nhflng lai ting d sd' cd trinh dp tieu hpc vi trung hoc cd sd. Day li nhflng nginh tham dung lad ddng. Nhflng ngay ca d nhflng nginh niy thi lao ddng hpc vi'n ri't thi'p cunj' bi tfl chdi. Sfl dieu chinh cd ci'u kinh te sau lin suy thoii niy thi ngay ea nhflng ngfldi ed trinh dp hpc vi'n tieu hpc cung se gap khd khin trong tim kie'm viec lim. - Vdi lao ddng ed trinh dp trung hpc phd thdng ty le ed viee lim giam, cd the do ed hdi hpc hinh d bic dai hpc, cao ding, nghe ting len. Cd hdi viee lim cho sd' niy ting len khi nen kinh te dieu chinh. HINH 6 : Cd ca'u lao dong co viec lam chia theo trinh do hoc van ^ Khong di hoc TrUdc tieu hoc Tieu hoc THCS THPT E1996 ^2000 Q2005 Dieu khd hieu li lao ddng dfl thfla edn nhieu, nhflng nguon cung lao ddng dfldng nhfl giam. Tinh trang khd tuye'n dung trong cic nim kinh te ting trfldng cao nhfl 2006-2007 gin nhfl hing ngiy. Nhflng sau suy thoii 2008, nam 2009 tfldng chflng nhfl de 20 Nghiin cdu Kinh tisi378 Thing 11/2009

Lam phdt, that nghiep... ding cho tuye'n dung thi thfle te lai khic. Vin khd tuyen dung lao ddng ngay tfl gifla qui 2/2009'. 3. Moi quan he giijfa lam phat va that nghiep Dudng Phillips Dudng Phillips mang ten nhi kinh te hpc ngfldi Anh gd'c Newzealand, A.W. Phillips, nim 1958 khi nghien cflu cic sd'lieu ve that nghiep vi tien Ifldng d nfldc Anh hdn mdt the ky, nhin thiy cd mdt mdi quan he ty le nghich gifla thi't nghiep vi lam phit tien Ifldng. Phit hien dd dflde cic nha kinh te ve sau niy gpi li dfldng Phillips ban diu hay "ly thuye't trao dd'i ve lam phit". Theo dd, mdt nen kinh te cd the mua mdt mfle dp thi't nghiep thi'p hdn ne'u sin sing tri gii bang met ty le lam phit eao hdn. (Samuelsen, 1985). Dfldng Phillips hien dai da: (i) thay dd'i lam phat tien Ifldng bing lam phit ve gii, (ii) bao gom ci lam phit dfl kie'n (bd' sung bdi nghien cflu cua Edmund Phelps vi Milton Friedman) vi (iii) eu sd'c eung tfl sau sfl kien ting gia diu nim 1970 cua OPEC. (Mankiw, 1997). Ba thip ky sau phit hien eua Phillips, cic sd' lieu ve ty le thi't nghiep vi lam phit cho thi'y mdi quan he phfle tap hdn so vdi dfldng Phillips ban dau. Cic quan sit cho thi'y, khdng ed mdt dfldng nio d'n dinh, mi cic die'm quay trdn theo chieu kim dong ho cd luc xoin vio trong, cd luc lai hfldng ra ngoii vi dflde gpi dfldng xdin Phillip. De giai thich hinh dang mdi cua dfldng Philhps, Edmund Phelps vi Milton Friedman xay dflng dfldng Philhps mdi, bd' sung khii niem ve ty le thdt nghiep tu nhien, phan biet gifla dfldng Philhps dii ban vi dfldng Philhps ngin ban. Dfldng Philhps ban dau vdi dp dd'c xud'ng chi dung trong ngan ban, dd li sfl dinh dd'i gifla lam phit vi thi't nghiep, nhflng dfldng Phillips trdng dii ban li thing dflng. Trdng dii han chi cd mdt ty le that nghiep phfl hdp vdi mfle lam phit dn dinh dd li ty le thit nghiep tfl nhien. (Samuelson, 1995). Ty le thdt nghiep tii nhien dfldc dinh nghia li d mfle mi tai dd, cac lfle day vi Iflc kee ddi vdi lam phit, gii vi Ifldng d trang thii can bing. Tai dd, lam phit dn dinh, se khdng ed chieu hfldng ting hoic giam lam phit. Trong mdt nen kinh te quan tim den viec ngin chin lam phit eao thi ty le tu nhien ciia thi't nghiep li mfle thip nhit ed the duy tri dflde^ (Samuelsen, 1995). Y nghia ciia viee ehi ra dfldpg Phillips dii ban vi ty le thdt nghiep tii nhien li cd mdt mfle thi't nghiep tdi thieu mi nen kinh te cd the duy tri trong dii ban. Mdt qud'c gia khdng the day thi't nghiep xud'ng ty le tfl nhien qui liu mi khdng kich thich vdng xoiy ting len eua lam phit Ifldng vi gii. (Samuelsen, 1995) Ddi hgn Id bao lau? Nhflng nghien cflu cho thi'y, sfl dieu chinh diy du phii mi't it nhi't 5 nim vi mdt sd' nghien eflu ke't luin ring, dfldng Phillips phai mit hdn mdt thip ky de trd thinh thing 4. va'n de cd the la tien luong cd the khdng cd su:c ha'p din sau lam phat. Nghien cuu ve trang thai eung lao ddng cho biei vdi nhijng ngudi ldn tudi thi tiln luong tang tren 10% se lam eung lao ddng giam tir 1-2%, trong khi vdi hau hdi lao ddng, vdi moi lira tudi deu ed phan ung thuan chieu vdi tien luong. (Samuelson, 1995). 5. Sammuelson cho rang ty le that nghiep tu nhien la mdt khai niem kinh te' hoc vt mo quan trong, nhung tinh toan bang so chi'nh xac la ra't khd. Robert J. Gordon, tinh toan cho thdi ky 1960-1970 d miic xap xi 6%. Cac nha kinh te khae tinh toan cho cudi nhung nam 80 vdi nhieu eon sd dao ddng trong khoang tir 5,5% de'n 6,5%. Nhin chung ty le thai nghiep tu nhien ve sau ed xu hudng tang len. Ty le tu nhien ciing de gay hieu lam bdi nd bi anh hudng bdi cac hinh thai thay ddi dan sd, chi'nh sach ve thi trudng lao ddng, nhiing dot bie'n ma nen kinh te' dang trai qua. Mdt so thuat ngii khac mang tfnh trung hda hon nhu ty le thai nghiep an loan ve lam phat, ty le thai nghiep khdng gia tang lam phat. Ty le thai nghiep tu nhien ciing khdng nhai thiei la ty le td'i uu. Cac nghien cuu lai cho rang ty le thai nghiep tdi uu (xuai hien khi mdt nen kinh te' duac td'i da hda) thap han ty le thai nghiep tu nhien. (Samuelson, 1995). Trong liin tai ban 1998, Samuelson da thay ty le thai nghiep tu nhien bang LSUR (Lowest subtainable unemployment rate). Nghiin cuu Kinh tisi378 - Thing 11/2009 21

Lam phdt, that nghiep... dflng. Ne'u dfldng Phillips tfldng ddi thoai thi giam lam phit se cin ting manh thi't nghiep, ne'u dfldng Phillips dd'c thi mpt sfl ting len it trong ty le thi't nghiep eung keo nhanh lam phit xud'ng vi tfldng ddi khdng dau ddn. (Samuelson, 1995) Dinh ludt Okun Dinh luit Okun cho rang, ne'u GDP giam di 2% so vdi GDP tiem ning, thi ty le thi't nghiep ting len 1%. (Samuelson, 1995). GDP tiim ndng - khii niem trong kinh te hpc vi md, gin lien vdi thi't nghiep tfl nhien, dfldc dinh nghia li xu hfldng dii ban eua GDP thflc te. Nd the hien nang lfle san xui't dii h^n eiia nen kinh te, hay li mfle tdi da met nen kinh te ed the sin xua't dfldc mi vin duy tri gii ci d'n dinh. Dd li mfle san Ifldng cd the sin xui't tai mfle chuan thi'p nha't cua ty le thi't nghiep dflde gpi li thi't nghiep tfl nhien. (Samuelson, 1995) GDP tiem ning dfldc quan niem li cii ngfldng gifla 2 thai cflc ciia viec sii dung qui mfle ning Iflc, qui nhieu dau vao khdng dflpc sii dung he't. Ne'u nen kinh te tim cich san xui't nhieu hdn san Ifldng tiem ning ciia minh, thi gia se bit dau tang ngay cing nhanh khi cac nguon lfle bi s^ dung qui mfle. Ne'u nen kinh te san xua't it hdn tiem ning ciia minh, se xua't hien tinh trang thi't nghiep cao vi dfl thfla cdng sui't. (Samuelson, 1995) San Ifldng tiem ning li muc tieu di dpng vi bi anh hfldng bdi mfle dp hieu qua vi cdng nghe dang sii dung. Khi nen kinh te ting trfldng, sin Ifldng tiem nang cung ting theo. Ddi mdi vi cai tie'n cdng nghe lim ting sin Ifldng tiem ning. (Samuelsen, 1995) (Cdn nfla) 6. Trong nhiing nghien cdu diu tien Okun th^y rang quan he vao khoang 3/1. NghTa la 1 dilm tang ciia th (t nghiep tuong iing vdi 3 diem trong chenh lech GDP. Tuy nhien nhung sd lieu gdn day cho tha'y ty le 2/1 (hoac ty le 2,5/1 phii hpp hon vdi nhiing giai doan gin day (Samuelson, 1998 va cac nghien cihi khac). 22 Nghiin cdu Kinh tisi378 - Thing 11/2009