LAP BAN DO DlT BAO Stf DUNG DAT TINH BINH Dl/OfNG DEN NAM 2030 BANG M6 IHNH i,and CHANGER IVIODELER (LCM) KET HOP Df Lifu ANH VE TINH LANDSAT Tdm tat:

LAP BAN DO DlT BAO Stf DUNG DAT TINH BINH Dl/OfNG DEN NAM 2030 BANG M6 IHNH i,and CHANGER IVIODELER (LCM) KET HOP Df Lifu ANH VE TINH LANDSAT Tdm tat: Dfi TH PHyaNG THAO", MAI VAN S^<^. Bin NGOC Q\yi"\ NGHIgM TH] HUY N"> '^rtnrdng dai hoc Mo - Bia chat "Cdng ty C6 phin tw van thiit ke Cong trinh Xiy dung Hii Phdng Miic dich cita nghidn cuv niy li thinh l$p ban dd dir bio biin ddng si> dung dit gial (fopn trung h^n va dai han cua tinh Binh Dircmg vdi nhiiu l&p dii tukfng sir dung dit bing md hinh dtr bao LCM va dir lidu anh vd tinh Landsat Kit qui phin tich bin dd dw bio din nim 2030 cho thiy mdt s6 lo^l hinh sir dung dit se thay dii ding ke cd the gay ra mil de doa nghidm tn?ng din mdi tnromg dd thi va anh hircmg din vide phit triin bin vimg ciia khu v\rc. 1. Dpt van de ViSt Nam li mpt trong nhung qulc gia dl bj anh hudng nhat bdi bien dli khi hau: nhipt dp trung binh ting 0,26 C mli thsp ky vi da eao gap ddi so vdi tie dd ting binh quin trsn toin du; bien thisn lupng mua gida cie mua du bio li cung se ting, mua mua se mua nhieu hon vi mda khd se khd hon. Neu xu thi niy cu tiep diln, cie loai hinh su dgng dit du kiln se bj inh hudng mpnh, trong dd khu vgc mien Odng Nam Bp eung se chju rui ro Idn hon khdng nhung tu tic ddng true tilp do biln dli khi hpu mi cdn vi day li khu vuc cd toe dp phit trien thudc tip dau cua ci nudc (ViSt Nam 2035). HiSn nay, xu hudng su dgng cic md hinh dl xiy dgng cic kjeh bin tii nguysn mdi trudng dang ngiy cing phi bien, cie kjch bin niy la cdng eg khdng the thilu trong viec xiy dung hs thong hi trp ra quylt djnh phgc vg cong tie quin ly va quy hoach lanh thi. Tuy nhisn, trong khi eic kjch bin (dg bio) tii nguysn nude, kjch bin sg cl vd hi, dpp dp quoe gia, dp vong da dupe trien khai xiy dgng thi eic kjeh bin bien dpng su dgng dat vin ehua cd mdt lupn eu vdng chac de dua ra tren binh disn cap vdng hope dp qulc gia. TrSn thi gidi, cd rat nhilu eae kieu md hinh dupe su dgng de dg bio bien dpng sd dgng dit, chang han nhir mo hinh toin hpc, md hinh thing ke, mo hinh phin tich xu hudng (hp thong da tac nhin), md hinh tl bio (cellular automata) va cic md hinh dya tren mpt phuong phip gpi li gin dung [7], [9] nhung cie md hinh nhu chuli Markov, CA-Markov, GEOMOD vi LCM mdi la nhung md hinh eho thay dupe sg hisu qui trong vipc du dpin biln dpng sd dgng dit vl ehung dupe kit hpp vdi h? thing thdng tin dja ly (GIS), du lipu vs tinh vien thim trong phin tich du lipu, mo phdng cic xic suit cua sg thay doi vi ning cao d tin csy kit qua dg doin su dgng dat trong tuong iai [4]. 2. Khu vuv nghien cd'u Binh Duong li mdt tinh thupc mien DSng Nam Bd, nim trong vdng kinh te trpng dilm phia Nam; la mpt trong nhung tfnh d tie dd tang trudng kinh tl cao, phit triln cdng nghisp nang dpng eua ea nudc; dipn tich tg nhien la 2.695.22 km^, vdi dja hinh khu vgc tuong dli bing phang, hp thong song ngdi Ng^ nhin ba: 2QO2/2017, ng^ chuy^ l*an bi fi'21aecoi?, ngay dlip nhin phdn t)i n-05o3/2017, ng^ ch^ nhin d*ig; 06/3C017 TAP CHi KHOA HOC DO OAC VA BAN D6 S(5 31-3/2017

vd tdi nguysn thidn nhien phong phci (hinh 1). Khf h u mang dgc diem nhi$t doi gi6 mua, n6ng Sm vai 2 mua ro r$t: mda mu'a tcr thang 5-11, mua kha ti> khoang thdng 12 nam trudc den thdng 4 ndm sau, lu'png mua trung binh hdng ndm tcr 1800mm- 2DD0mm. Nhiet do trung brnh hang nam id 26,5 C. Dan so cda ttnh Id 1.482.636 ngu&i (1/4/2009), mdt d6 ddn s6 khoang 550 ngudi/km', g6m 7 den vj hdnh chinh true thuoc trong do Thu D^u l^pt Id tmng tam kinh te - chinh tri - vdn hoa cua tinh. Trong nhung nam ghn day, toe dp tang topdrng kinh t^ luon a mirc cao, GDP tdng binh quan khoang 14,5%/ndm. Ca cau kinh tl chuyen biln tich cue, c6ng nghiep, dich vy tdng trudng nhanh vd chiem ty trpng cao diin hinh nam 2010, ty le cong nghidp - xay dvmg Id 63%, djch vy 32,6% vd nong lam nghi$p 4,4%. 3. DIP li^u vd phipcng phap 3.1. Chuan bi dirlieu 3.1.1.Dir li$u vien thdm Du li$u dnh vp tinh l-andsat dup^c lua chpn trong nghidn euu nay bao gom Landsat5TM (2000), Landsat? ETM+ (2009) vd LandsatS OLI_TIR (2015) dl thanh ldp cdc bdn do su dyng dat cdc nam tuang i>ng. Ngodi ra, du lipu Spot, Quiekbird e6 do phan gidi cao (2,5m) va sidu eao (0,6m) cung dup'c su dyng nhu Id tai li^u h5 trp' trong qud trinh chpn mau phdn loai si> dyng dit vd trong qud trlnh kilm tra kit qua sau phan logi. 3.1.2. Bdn do dja hinh Bdn d6 dja hinh tl Ip 1:50.000 (dup'c hipn d)inh ndm 2011) dupe SIJ dung Idm tdi li^u h6 trp trong qud trinh xac djnh ede mau giai dodn dnh; xdc djnh vj tri ede diem khdo sdt thye (Sa trong qud trlnh thu th$p du lipu; xdy dyng ea sd du lipu dudng giao thong, mgng ludi thoy hp phye vy ehpy mo hinh LCM. Nghien cm - Ung dung 3.1.3. Dir lieu thirc dja Du lieu thuc dja thu thap vdo thdng 4 ndm 2015 duae su dyng de kilm ^a d$ chinh xdc ban do su dung dat sau phdn lopi; de xde djnh cde Idp su dung dat khde nhau vd vj tri chinh xac coa dilm khdo sdt thyc dja. Su dyng mdy anh ky tiiupt so, ban do dia hinh vd dnh vp tinh cua khu vye nghidn euu (dup'c in trdn giay dnh), anh khdo sat thyc dja cija moi loai hinh su dyng dat de chyp tpi nhieu dja diem khde nhau nham ddm bdo tinh ehinh xde cua cdc du lipu thu th$p dupre. 3.2. M6 dun Land Change Modeler (LCM) Land Change Modeler (LCM) Id mot mddun tong hp'p dup^e su dyng cho vide phdn tieh, dy bdo edc thay dli su dyng dat, ddnh gid cdc ylu to dnh hudng din da dpng sinh hpc vd quy hopch lanh tho [1], [2]. Vi$c md hinh hoa bien dpng su dyng dat si> dyng md dun LCM doi hol phdi e6 hai ban 6b hi^n trang si> dyng dat tuang ung vdi hai thdi dilm khde nhau Tl vd T2; ede ban d6 ndy dup'c su dyng nhu Id do- lipu dau vdo dl phdn tich cde thay ddi su dyng dat trong qud khu, giijp cho vi^c ndm bat edc thong tin vl sy tang, gidm vd cdc vcing chuyen doi cda cde lopi su dung dat khde nhau[6]. Mo TAP CHl KHOA HOC DO OAC VA BAN B6 S6 31-3/2017

dun niy cung djnh lupng dupe nhung thay dli sd dgng dit trong giai dopn Tl vi T2 [5],[6]. Md dun LCM eho phdp dg' bio sg' biln d ng sd dgng dat vdi mdt, hai hope nhilu ldp su dgng dit cdng mst iuc trsn cc sd cda qui trlnh ehuyin dli tilm ning (khi nang chuyen doi), mil qui trinh ehuyin doi dupe mo hinh hda bing mpt ham hoi quy logistic hope mang thin kinh da ldp [1],[3]. Nlu lua ehpn thust toin thich hpp vdi mgc tisu dpt ra, cie bin dl du bio biln dpng sd dgng dit cd thi ed dp chinh xic cap hon 70% [10] vi cho phsp trve tiep xuit ra bin dl dg bio sd dgng dat vdi eic tin vi sl lupng ldp nhu dc bin dl hisn trpng diu vio. Quy trtnh ISp bin do dg bio bien d$ng sd dung dat dua tren md hinh LCM dupe tdm tat d so do hinh 2, theo quy trinh, tnfdc tisn qui trtnh biln ddng su dgng dit dupe xie djnh dua trsn vipc phin tich da thdi gian eua eic bin dl hisn trpng su dgng dat; tiep theo, cic ylu to thgc si/ d inh hudng (cic bien giil thich) den sg biln dpng trsn dupe dinh gii va xac djnh. Ljch su bien dfing sd dgng dit va eic nguin thong tin md ta cic bien giii thich dupe tich hpp vio mo hinh LCM dl xiy dung cic kjch bin su dgng dat vdi thust toan hll quy logistic (Logistic Regression, viet tit li LogReg) hope mpng thin kinh da ldp (Multi-Layer Pereeptron, Viet tat la PMC) sau dd ip dgng chudi Mari(ov dl lip ban do du bao su dgng dit d mdt thdi diem hipn tai nham hipu ehinh mfi hinh; kl tiep li tien hinh dinh gii kit qui hieu chinh md hinh bang cich so sanh bin do dg bio sd dung dat vdi bin do tii lieu d cung thdi diem; cull cdng li xay dgng eic kjch ban su dgng dat trong ngan hpn, taing han vi dii hpn. (Xem hinh 2) 4. Kit qui 4.1. Phan tich bien ddng sip dyng dat 4.1.1. Thanh lap cac ban do hien trang Cic bin dl hisn trpng su dgng dat tinh Nghien ciiu - ling dung Hinh 2:13v bio bifin dlog sii dvdg dit ldng md binlilcu Binh Duong dupe xay dgng theo hudng tilp cpn Idp phu, trsn dd phai the hisn dupe cie loai hinh sd dgng dat cp bin d^c thd cua tinh. Qua khao sit thg'e dja vi tham khio eic bin dl hisn trpng da d, 6 ldp dli tupng sd dgng dit dupe mfi ti vi iga ehpn nhu bing 1. Bin dl sd dgng dit nam 2015 dupe xay dgng tnfdc, sau dd din ban dl nim 2009 va cull cdng li bin dl nim 2000. Mau giii dpin inh eae nam dupe xiy dgng dga trsn dd IiSu khao sit thgc dja ket hpp giii ddn trsn anh dd phan giai sisu cao (Quickblid). Cac miu inh dupe phin bl rai diu ttsn toin khu vuc nghisn cdu, tren cc sd dd tiln hinh phin lopi su dgng dit theo thust toin xae xuat cgc dpi li thust toin dupe ip dgng rdng rai d Vipt Nam va tren the gidi. Dl dinh gii dp chinh xie, kit qui phin loai sd dung dat nam 2015 dupe so sinh vdi tai lipu khao sat thuc dja, trong khi tii lipu tham khao cho cic nam 2009 vi 2000 dupe xay dung tu cie tii lisu bo trp nhu bin do dja hinh, bin dl hisn trpng su dgng dit cic nam 2000 vi 2010 dp tinh. Cie chl s6 thing ks dinh gii dp chinh xic kit qua phan lopi sd dgng dit nam 2000, 2009 vi TAP CHi KHOA HOC 00 DAC VA BAN D6 S6 31-3/2017

2015 tinh Binh Duang cho thay. dp chinh xdc Chung kit qud phan lopi nam trong khoang t(r 86-91%. Idn han gid trj ydu clu (85%). Tuang ty, h$ so Kappa nam trong khoang ttr 0.83 din 0,9 ddm bdo so vdi ydu du Id trdn 0,8. (Xem bing 1) 4.1.2. Phdn tich biin ddng su'di^ng dit Biln d$ng su dung dat trong giai dopn 2000-2009 eua tinh Binh Duang dup'c phdn tich thong qua mfi hinh LCM to ban do su dyng dit edc nam tuang i>ng, thi hipn dong thdi sy tang vd gidm di$n tich cua tl>ng Idp doi tup'ng. Kit qua eho thiy hiu hit cdc Idp dli tup'ng su dyng dat diu c6 biln dpng: didn tich dit trong edy edng nghipp, dat cdy dn qud vd dit ddn cu (ca sd hp tang) tang rd rdt, gid trj tdng tuang ung 22000 ha. 18000 ha vd 11 000 ha trong giai dopn 2000-2009, ngup'c Ipi, dipn tich dit ndng nghiop va rung giam mpnh, tuang i>ng khodng 36000 ha vd 15000 ha. Sy suy gidm dipn tfch dat ndng nghidp vd dat rifng c6 thi dup'c gidi thich Id do sy chuyin dli myc dfch SLP dyng dat sang tring cdy cdng nghipp, cay an qud, xdy dyng khu ddn cu, ca sd hp tang vd edc khu cdng nghipp. Phdn bo khdng gian biln dpng tong Idp dli tu'ang su dyng dat eua tinh Binh Duang giai doan 2000-2009 eho thay khu vyc c6 mdu do ddm Id nhung khu vyc eo sy biln dong manh, khu vyc c6 mdu xanh nhgt Id nho-ng khu vye khdng co biln dpng hope nho-ng khu vyc ft cd sy biln ddng cdn khu vyc cd mdu xanh d$m, trdn thang phdn ting mau cd gid trj dm. Id nhijng khu vyc khdng co dw lipu. (Xem hinh 3) Hinh 3a cho thiy sy biln d$ng didn tfch dit trdng cdy an qua diln ra mgnh me d khu vyc giua coa tinh, ddy cung Id khu vyc dup'c xem nhu c6 sy phdt trien mpnh me vung chuydn eanh cdy dn qud, trong khi do, sy biln dong dli vdi nhdm dit tring cdy cdng nghidp (hinh 3b) diln ra chu ylu d khu vyc phfa Ddng Bae eua tinh, sy bien ddng d day ehu ylu Id sy chuyin doi tlj" dit rung sang dat tring edy Idu nam nhu ed phd, eao su. Hinh 3c thi hi^n khdng gian biln dong coa dit dan cu dien ra trdn todn tinh vd t$p tnjng chu ylu d khu vyc phfa ddng nam, chfnh la khu vuc thdnh pho Thu Diu MOt nai CO tdc dp phdt triln kinh tl vd do thj hda manh me trong vdng 20 ndm qua. Sy phdt triln eua khu vye nay di kdm vdi sy ehuyin doi tu dit hoa mdu. dat li^a nude sang dat tho eu. dat khu edng nghidp vd ea sd hg tang giao thdng. 4.2. Mo hinh hda cdc chuyin dil tiem nang Md hinh hda cde ehuyin doi tiem ndng (hay cdn dup'c gpi Id cdc kha nang ehuyin dli) la mpt bude quan trpng nham xdy dyng cdc bien gidi thfch (cde chuyin doi da xay ra thdng qua phdn tich biln dpng su dung dat Bang 1: Bang phdn lo^i so- dung dit tfnh Binh Dwang STT 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ldp dli tu^ng Qat rcrng Bit nong nghi$p cay c6ng nghidp C y an qud Dat dan cu* Mpt nudc Mots Ld rijng ty nhien co dp che phu tan ICr 20-70% Ld vung dit trong lua nudc, IOa nu'dc xen hoa mdu, dit tring cay hang nam nhu" ngd, khoai, san, lac Olt trong cay c6ng nghipp lau nam nhu cao su, cd ph6 Dit trong cay an qud Idu nam nhu-: cam, budi, sau ri6ng, xoai Glm alt d, dit khu cong nghipp, dat giao thong Dal song, hi, ao nu6i trong thciy sdn, dat ngsp nudc TAP CHl KHOA HOC 00 DAC VA BAN D6 S6 31-3/2017

trong qui khd), dua vio thilt isp md hinh chuyin dli phg (li mfi hinh phin tich, dinh gii khi ning chuyen dli cua tdng ldp dli tupng su dgng dit) de tinh toin vi xac djnh khi ning ehuyin dli cie dli tupng sd dgng dit trong tuong lai. Kit qui phin tich da xie djnh dupe danh mgc dc biln d ng su dgng dit giai dopn 2000-2009 eua tinh Binh Duong, trong dd dit ciy an qua, dit ndng nghisp, dat rung lln lupt dupe chuyen sang 4 lopi hinh su dgng dit khic vi dat mat nude ehuyin sang 2 lopi hinh sd dgng dit khic. Sg biln ddng su dgng dit dn bj tic dpng bdi nhilu ylu tl, trong dd d de ylu tl tu nhien nhu dja hinh (dp die, hinh thai, hudng sudn), hp thuy vin, thi nhudng, nhist do, lupng mua,... d ea nho'ng ylu tl do eon ngudi giy ra nhu giao thdng, din eu, dfi thj hda,... Mil mdt ylu to tren dupe eoi li mdt biln giii thieh khi dua vio md hinh ehuyin dli phg, 9 biln giii thieh die trung dupe ip dgng trong xiy dgng bin dl Nghien deu - Xing dtfng dg bio su dgng alt, dupe thing ks trong bing 2. Trong bang 2. dc yeu to Thdy vin, Giao thfing, Dilm din cu dupe dua vio ml hinh dudi dpng bin dl ch? sl khoang dch din eic dli tupng niy. Cic biln giii thich niy dupe xiy dgng dga tren tinh toan khoang deh adit (Euclidean) do dupe gida pixel din dilm mgc tieu gan nhit Vipc tinh toan khoang deh niy dupe thgc hien trsn phin mem IDRISl, vdi diu vio li bin do mpng ludi thuy van, giao thdng, diem din eu vi diu ra li cie bin dl khoing din thdy vin, din giao thfing, den diem dan cu. (Xem bing 2) Cic tham sl trong bing trsn d muc ds vi vai trd inh hudng din sg biln ding sd dgng dat li khic nhau, do dd cae biln gial thieh trong mo hinh chuyin dli phg d ttpng sl khic nhau dupe danh gii thdng qua chi sl Cramer's V, (tisu chuin doi vdi eic bien giai thieh). Gii trj chl sl Cramer's V cao dupe eoi nhu cd moi lien kit ehat chs din biln dong sd dgng dit. Ve mat ly thuyet, ehi ^'tthtkiikttfne ATtb OCu % it 0*dt< Trend All Io Rung : («v^:' I. '*" I ^Iteh. <S'^ '*' U ^ "i Hinh 3: PhSn bo khong gian bien dong su dung dit giai doan 2000-2009 TAP CHl KHOA HOC OO OAC VA BAN O6 S(5 31-3/2017

sl Cramer's V ldn hpn ho^c blng 0,15 dupe coi li chip nhin dupe; nim trong khoing 0,4 khi dfi cic biln giii thich dupe coi la tit d inh hudng din qui trinh mfi hinh qua biln ddng sd dgng dit [2]. Trong nghisn edu niy eic gii trj Cramer's V cda tdng biln giii thieh diu idn hon 0.15 chdng td rang tit d de ylu tl diu d mil quan hs khing kbit din bien dong sd dgng dat trong khu vgc, do vay d 9 biln giii thich trsn deu dua vio ehpy mfi hinh ehuyin dli phg sd dgng mpng thin kinh da ldp, phgc vg vipe xiy dgng bin dl dg bio su dung dat den nam 2030. Qui trinh chay md hinh phg, cic tham so cua md hinh (sl lupng mlu, sl lupng biln, gii trj tinh toin ban diu,...) dirpc hisu chtnh sao eho dd ehinh xae tinh toan bin thin eua mfi hinh dat it nhat 75%. Cae sl lisu thing ks danh gii dp chinh xic hipu ehinh mfi hinh phg eho thiy, gii tri sai so trung phuong (RMS) chpn miu tinh toin cda md hinh la khi nhd (gii trj niy trude khi hisu chinh li 0.48 ds giim xuing dn 0.1445 sau khi hipu chinh). Dp chinh xic eda md hinh chuyen dli phg dpt 76.63%, cao hon gii trj tisu chuan yeu du (75%), khi md hinh chuyin dli phg tinh din iln i^p thd 7000 trd di. 4.3. Thanh l$p bin di d\r bao sir dung dat Trudc tisn dn xiy dung bin do du bio sd dgng dit din thdi dilm hisn tai (2015) dl so sanh vdi ban dl su dgng dit nam 2015 di thanh lap tu inh LandsatS OLl_TlRS (dupe cpi li tii HSu tham khio d dd chinh xic tit, di dupe kilm chdng) nhim dinh gia dd ehinh xic ciia mo hinh LCM. Qui trinh niy dupe thg'e hipn thdng qua dinh gii do ehinh xic tung ldp dli tupng sd dung dit, hs sl Kappa vi do chinh xic ehung cda bin dl du bic sd dgng dit. Kit Bing 2: Cic biin giai thich ap dung trong md hinh chuyin dii phu STT 1 2 Tfin ylu to ThOy vdn Dirdng giao thdng Mdtd H# tiling thgy vdn bao glm sdng, suli, ho H thing giao thong chinh Ten bien giai thich Khodng cdch den h^ thuy vdn Khoang cdch din giao thdng 3 Dilm ddn or Cdc dilm ddn cu chfnh nhu thj trin, thj xa, thanh phi Khodng each den diem ddn cu 4 Dja htnh Ylu tl dja hinh be mpt dirqrc the hi$n dudi dpng md hinh sl dja hinh (DEM) DEM 5 DO doc Ylu tl dja hinh be mpt dup'c thi hi^n dudi dpng dp die Dp doc (%) 6 Hinh thai be mdt Ylu to dja hinh be mpt dupe the hi^n dudi dpng hinh thdi be mat, hudng sudn Aspect 7 Luong mua Ylu tl khi hdu the hi$n theo phan bl Iu'p'ng mua tnjng binh nam Lu'o'ng mua 8 Nhiet dp Ylu to khi hdu the hi$n theo nhi$t do tmng binh nam Nhipt dp 9 Tho nhudng Phdn bo loai dit Thinhuong TAP CHl KHOA HOC DO DAC VA BAN O6 S6 31-3/2017

qui thong ks eho thiy, do chfnh xie bin dl cua sin phim dli vdi nhdm dit ndng nghisp vi dit m^t nude li khi cao, trsn 90%; nhdm dit dy in qui vi dit din eu tl ip du bio chinh xic khoing trsn 85%; nhdm dit rdng vi dy edng nghiop d mde chip nh$n dupe, khoing 82%; Nhin Chung, dp ehinh xic ehung cda bin dl dg bio din nim 2015 dpt 89% vi he sl Kappa khping 0.88, kit qui niy phin inh do tin dy cda mfi hinh LCM vi che phdp tlin hinh xay dgng kjch bin su dgng dit din nim 2030. Trong pha xiy dgng kjeh bin sd dgng dit, cic thdng si cda mfi hinh chuyen doi phg vi dc bien giii thieh dupe giu nguysn nhu trong pha hisu chinh md hinh. Tuy nhien, bin dl phin bl nhist do vi lupng mua trung binh nim dupe xay dgng dga tren sl llpu dg bio bien dli khi hsu doi vdi ViSt Nam do cgc Khi tupng thdy vin vi Biln dli khi h$u edng bl hing nim vi du HSu giao thdng dupe su dgng li ban do quy hoach mpng ludi giao thdng den nam 2025. Theo bio do trsn, din nam 2030, ViSt Nam ss chju nhdng inh hudng eua biln doi khi hsu toin du, trong dd nhipt dp se tang khoing VC va lupng mua cd thi giim khoing 10%. TrSn ca sd du lisu lupng mua vi nhipt dp trung binh nam da su dgng trong pha hisu chinh mfi hinh kit hpp vdi ban do dg bio lupng mua vi nhiet do din nam 2050 toin quoc, xay dgng kjeh bin biln doi khi hsu rieng cho ttnh Binh Duong den nam 2030 vi dua vio mfi hinh nhu mot biln giii thieh dai disn eho yeu to biln dli khi hau inh hudng din bien dong sd dgng dit. Ma trsn khi nang chuyin dli su dgng dit din nim 2030 dupe thilt lap thdng qua phan tieh ehuoi Markov, nd the hisn djnh lupng khi nang ehuyin doi sd dgng dit cua tdng Idp doi tupng su dgng dat den nim 2030. Trong ma trpn niy, cae hing tuong ung vdi eic Idp su dgng dat nim 2015 vi dc dt tuong dng vdi cie dli tupng sd dgng dat Nghien oiw - Vtng dung dupe dg bip din nim 2030. Cic gii trj nam trsn dudng chio chinh eda ma trsn thi hisn mde do biln dong eda mdt dli tupng sd dgng sd dgng dit sang dc dli tupng khic trong giai dopn 2015-2030. TrSn ea sd rna trsn chuyin dli Mlm nang da thilt ipp, tiln hinh xiy dgng bin dl sd dgng dit tinh Binh Duong din nam 2030 (hinh 4). I]ui]i4;Bandddv bao bieod^ngsudvng dit d a nim 2030 Sd dgng du lisu viln thim kit hpp vdi hp thong thdng tin dja ly (GiS) li cdng cg huu ich cho phdp thinh ISp eic bin do dg bio biln dong sd dgng dit cie giai doan ngin hpn, trung han vi dii hpn dga trsn nhung phan tich bien dong ljch su ve su dgng dit vi nhdng ylu tl cd inh hudng quan tnjng din qui trlnh ehuyin doi su dgng dit thdng qua md hinh mfi phdng biln dong su dgng dat LCM (Land Change Modeler). Vipe tieh hpp ding thdi de ylu to tu nhisn vi dc ylu to do con ngudi giy ra, nham phin tich vi du bio xu thi biln dong sd dgng dit dga trsn nguysn ly cua chuli Markov, sd dgng mang thin kinh da Idp (Multi-Layer Pereeptron) li mot cich tilp can khoa hpc. Ban dl kit qui dat dp chinh xie cao (trsn 89%) d thi dam bio do tin dy dg doan nhung thay dli sd dgng dit trong nhdng nim tilp theo vi d thi ip dyng vdi nhilu khu vgc tren toan quoe.o TAP CHl KHOA HOC DO DAC VA BAN D6 S6 31-3/2017

Tii ii$u tham khio [1]. Eastman J.R.; Van Fossen M.E., Solatzano, LA (2006), Transition Potential ittodeling for Land Cover Changein GIS, Analysis, Spatial, Modeling; Maguire, D.J., Goodchild, M.F., Batty, M., Eds.; ESRi Press: Rediands, CA, USA, 386p. [2]. Eastman J. Ronald, (2009)IDRISi Taiga: Guide to GIS and Image processing,ciaeklat>-clackuniversity. Manual version 16.02, 342p [3]. Keith T Weber, (2012), Forecasting i^ngeland Condition in Southeastern Idaho using GiS, Idaho State University GIS Training and ResearehCenter, 921 S. 8th Ave., Stop 8104, Pocatello, Idaho83209-8104. [4]. Kumar S., Kumari P., BhaskarU., (2016), Application of Markov Chain & Cellular Automata based model for prediction of Urban transitions, Intemational Conference on Electrlcai, Electronics, and Optimization Techniques (iceeot). [5]. Megahed Y., Cabral P., Silva J. and Caetano M., (2015), Land Cover Mapping Analysis and Urt>an Growth Modelling Using Remote Sensing Techniques in Greater Cairo Region Egypt, ISPRS Int J. Geo-inf. 2015, 4, 1750-1769; Summary doi:10.3390/ijgi4031750. [6]. Mishra V. N., Rai P. K., Mohan K., (2014), Prediction of land use changes based on land change modeler (LCM) using remote sensing: A ease study of Muzaffarpur (Bihar), India, J. Geogr. Inst Cvijic. 64(1) (111-127), DOI: 10.2298/IJGI1401111M. [7]. Nedjai R., Nghiem V. T, Do T. P. T, Nasredine M. N., (2016), The impact of land-use and climate change in the centre region of France on the physico-chemical status of aquatic systems, Int J. Spatial, Temporal and Multimedia information Systems, VOL 1, No. 1, 2016. [8]. Ngan.hing Thi gidi vi Bp Kl hopch vi Dau tir, ViSt Nam 2035; doi: 10.1596/978-1^1648-0824-1. [9]. Nghiem V. T, Nedjai R., Le V. A. and Chaileux L. (2013),Application of GIS and remote sensing for predicting land-use change in the French Jura Mountains with the LCM model: the impact of variables on the disturbance mode'. Proceeding of the 34th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing, Bali, Indonesia, pp.2588-2595, ISBN: 978-602-9439-33-5, (SC04-95 i SC04-102). [10]. Veidkamp A., Lambinb E.F., (2001), Predicting land-use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 85,1-6.0 Mapping forecast land-use change 2030 in Binh Duong province using land changer modeler (LCM) combined with Landsat data l^ Thi F^huong Thao, Bui Ngoc Quy, Nghiem Thi Huyen Hanoi University ofmlnning and Geology Mai Van Sy, Hal Phong Design Consultant Investment Joint Stock Company The purpose of this study is to establish the forecast map of land use changes the medium term and long term In Binh Duong province with land use land cover by using Land Change Modeler (LCM) and Landsat data. Analytical results forecast map In 2030 showed some type of land use will change significantly can cause serious threats to the urban environment and affect the sustainable development ofthe area area.o TAP CHl KHOA HOC OO DAC VA BAN 06 S6 31-3/2017 51